Growth rising faster than expected but risks increasing too, says OECD Economic Outlook

OECD Forecast for the Netherlands 2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011 
GDP - % change from previous year 2.0 3.4 3.6 2.0 -4.0 1.2 2.0
Unemployment - % of labour force 4.7 3.9 3.1 2.7 3.4 4.6 4.8
Fiscal balance - % GDP -0.3 0.5 0.2  0.7 -5.3 -6.4 -5.4 
Inflation (CPI) 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.0 0.9 1.4
Private final consumption expenditure - volume 1.0 -0.3 1.7 1.3 -2.5 0.5 1.3 
Government final consumption expenditure - volume 0.5 9.5 3.7 2.0 3.2 1.1 0.5
Gross fixed capital formation - total - volume 3.7 7.5 4.8 4.9 -13.0 -7.5 4.0 
Final domestic expenditure - volume 1.4 3.8 2.9 2.3 -3.3 -1.0 1.6
Total domestic expenditure - volume 1.3 4.1 2.3 2.7 -4.0 0.3 1.5
Exports of goods and services - volume - National Accounts basis 6.0 7.3 6.7 2.7 -8.2 9.6 7.0
Imports of goods and services - volume - National Accounts basis 5.4 8.8 5.1 3.7 -8.7 9.0 6.9 
Gross domestic product - deflator - market prices 2.4 1.8 1.6 2.7 -0.3 0.5 1.4
Short-term interest rate - per cent per annum 2.2 3.1 4.3 4.6 1.2 0.7 1.9
Current account balance - as a percentage of GDP 7.3 9.3 8.7 4.8 5.4 5.3 5.9

Economic activity in OECD countries is picking up faster than expected but volatile sovereign debt markets and overheating in emerging-market economies are presenting increasing risks to the recovery, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook published on May 26, 2010. The OECD country forecast for the Netherlands is noted in the above table.
Gross domestic product (GDP) across OECD countries is projected to rise by 2.7% this year and by 2.8% in 2011. These are upward revisions from the previous, November 2009, forecasts of OECD-wide GDP growth of 1.9% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011.

In the US, activity is projected to rise by 3.2% this year and by a further 3.2% in 2011. Euro area growth is forecast at 1.2% this year and 1.8% next while, in Japan, GDP is expected to expand by 3.0% in 2010 and by 2.0% in 2011.

GDP projections (% change from previous year)

 

Trade flows are rising again. Strong growth in China and other emerging markets is helping to pull other countries out of recession. But at the same time, the risk of overheating and inflation is growing in emerging markets. A boom-bust scenario cannot be ruled out, requiring a further tightening in countries such as China and India. The knock-on effect would be slower growth in other regions. Exchange rate flexibility could ease some of the pressure on Chinese monetary policy and provide more scope for addressing domestic inflation, says the OECD.

Instability in sovereign debt markets poses another serious risk. It has highlighted the need for the euro area to strengthen its institutional and operational architecture. Bolder measures need to be taken to ensure fiscal discipline, says the Outlook. Several countries are already taking early action to enhance the credibility of their fiscal consolidation plans and this is very welcome.

With a huge debt burden weighing on many OECD countries and the strengthening recovery, the emergency fiscal measures provided by governments to tackle the crisis must be removed by 2011 at the latest, the Outlook says. It adds that the pace of such action must be appropriate to particular conditions and the state of public finances in each country.
To support growth as budgets are being tightened, macroeconomic, financial and structural policies need to be linked. Spending cuts or tax rises should focus on areas that are the least harmful to growth. Fiscal rules could enhance the credibility of plans to strengthen public finances. Reforming product and labor markets to enhance competitiveness must also be part of the strategy.
With a huge debt burden weighing on many OECD countries and the strengthening recovery, the emergency fiscal measures provided by governments to tackle the crisis must be removed by 2011 at the latest, the Outlook says. It adds that the pace of such action must be appropriate to particular conditions and the state of public finances in each country.

Although economic activity is picking up, the growth in jobs is not keeping pace. The number of unemployed has risen by 16 million in OECD countries in the past two years. The Outlook says the unemployment rate may now be peaking at an average 8.5% across OECD economies and is likely to fall only slowly in the near term. It adds that governments must make room in their budgets for cost-effective labor market programs that support workers at greatest risk of becoming long-term unemployed.

Unemployment rate (% of labor force)

 

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